{"id":1459,"date":"2026-06-26T23:01:37","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T22:01:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/?p=1459"},"modified":"2026-06-26T23:01:37","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T22:01:37","slug":"bien-doi-khi-hau-co-khuech-dai-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/?p=1459","title":{"rendered":"Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu c\u00f3 khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i El Nino?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\nBi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu c\u00f3 khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i El Nino? <\/h1>\n

Trong khi \u0111\u1ee3t El Nino m\u1edbi c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang tranh lu\u1eadn li\u1ec7u bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu c\u00f3 g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n l\u00e0m t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

H\u00f4m 11\/6, C\u1ee5c Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd \u0110\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 Kh\u00ed quy\u1ec3n Qu\u1ed1c gia M\u1ef9 (NOAA) th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o El Nino \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn k\u00e9o d\u00e0i \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2027, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c. Khi kh\u00ed nh\u00e0 k\u00ednh khi\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh tinh \u1ea5m l\u00ean, c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n El Nino trong v\u00e0i th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1ea1nh. Do chu\u1ed7i El Nino t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1980 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt khi so s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi 600 n\u0103m qua, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc cho r\u1eb1ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 El Nino trong khi c\u00e1c h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 kh\u00e1c nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng ch\u1ee9ng minh \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n

V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 g\u00e2y tranh c\u00e3i n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng v\u00ec El Nino l\u00e0m gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, g\u00e2y ra h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng nh\u01b0 nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng cao, h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n \u1edf m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01a1i v\u00e0 l\u0169 l\u1ee5t \u1edf n\u01a1i kh\u00e1c. C\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n El Nino r\u1ea5t ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p do kh\u00f4ng b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n duy nh\u1ea5t m\u00e0 ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1eeb h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c gi\u1eefa \u0111\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 kh\u00ed quy\u1ec3n. N\u1ebfu bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu khi\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u01a1ng di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng \u1edf quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n, m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i s\u1ebd n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c ch\u1ee9ng minh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 El Nino. Michael McPhaden, nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc cao c\u1ea5p t\u1ea1i NOAA, c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ee3t El Nino m\u1ea1nh trong n\u0103m nay r\u1ea5t “\u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd”. N\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ee3t El Nino m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea1t c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u01b0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o, 3 trong s\u1ed1 6 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n El Nino m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1950 x\u1ea3y ra trong v\u00f2ng 11 n\u0103m qua.<\/p>\n

El Nino x\u1ea3y ra l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i 2-7 n\u0103m m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n, n\u1eb1m trong chu k\u1ef3 kh\u00ed h\u1eadu t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean El Nino-Dao \u0111\u1ed9ng Nam (ENSO) \u1edf Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng. Chu k\u1ef3 ENSO chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u1eefa pha n\u00f3ng El Nino v\u00e0 pha l\u1ea1nh La Nina v\u1edbi c\u00e1c pha trung h\u00f2a xen k\u1ebd. Gi\u1edbi nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n El Nino b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch xem x\u00e9t thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 m\u1eb7t bi\u1ec3n trong khu v\u1ef1c h\u00ecnh ch\u1eef nh\u1eadt r\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn \u1edf trung t\u00e2m Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng. Nhi\u1ec1u d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o cho th\u1ea5y trong n\u0103m nay, nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 \u1edf \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 3 \u0111\u1ed9 C so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh, t\u1ea1o ra \u0111\u1ee3t El Nino m\u1ea1nh ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng th\u1ea5y. Theo ti\u1ebfn s\u0129 McPhaden, \u0111\u00e2y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng v\u1ec1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu trong chu k\u1ef3 ENSO.<\/p>\n

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Trong c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t El Nino, nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 m\u1eb7t bi\u1ec3n \u1edf Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng lu\u00f4n cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng. \u1ea2nh: NOAA<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc Wenju Cai \u1edf \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc \u0110\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u01a1ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c d\u00e0nh h\u01a1n 20 n\u0103m ch\u1ea1y c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed h\u1eadu nh\u1eb1m t\u00ecm ra m\u1ed1i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng gi\u1eefa l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00ed th\u1ea3i gia t\u0103ng v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t El Nino m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n. Theo Phys.org<\/em>, trong nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 n\u0103m 2023 tr\u00ean t\u1ea1p ch\u00ed Nature, ti\u1ebfn s\u0129 Cai v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng nghi\u1ec7p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng t\u1ea1o b\u1edfi 43 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed h\u1eadu. \u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, h\u1ecd so s\u00e1nh m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng trong hai giai \u0111o\u1ea1n: n\u0103m 1901-1960 v\u00e0 n\u0103m 1961-2020. Ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng (ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh) c\u1ee7a ENSO gia t\u0103ng t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1960, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n El Nino v\u00e0 La Nina m\u1ea1nh xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

Sau \u0111\u00f3, nh\u00f3m c\u1ee7a Cai ki\u1ec3m tra m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng kh\u00ed h\u1eadu trong h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi con ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u0103ng ph\u00e1t th\u1ea3i kh\u00ed nh\u00e0 k\u00ednh v\u00e0 so s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng sau n\u0103m 1960. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd ch\u1ec9 ra ENSO bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng r\u1ea5t m\u1ea1nh t\u1eeb sau m\u1ed1c th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u00f3, gi\u00fap c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn kh\u00ed th\u1ea3i nh\u00e0 k\u00ednh do con ng\u01b0\u1eddi g\u00e2y ra l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n ch\u00ednh. Tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc kh\u00e1c c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 sai s\u00f3t v\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u00f2n h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thu th\u1eadp t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1950 trong khi nh\u1eadt k\u00fd c\u1ee7a th\u1ee7y th\u1ee7 ch\u1ec9 cung c\u1ea5p th\u00f4ng tin \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 v\u1ec1 nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1eeb th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19, theo Guardian<\/em>.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc c\u0169ng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a El Nino b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm d\u1ea5u v\u1ebft m\u00e0 thay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i tr\u00ean r\u1ea1n san h\u00f4 v\u00e0 v\u00f2ng c\u00e2y. Nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc kh\u00ed h\u1eadu Kim Cobb, gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c Vi\u1ec7n M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 X\u00e3 h\u1ed9i \u1edf \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Brown t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9, cho r\u1eb1ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu \u0111ang l\u00e0m t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 El Nino. N\u0103m 2019, m\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a Cobb d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n t\u00edch san h\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec3 k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn El Nino ng\u00e0y nay m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 ti\u1ec1n c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u1edf v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1edbi t\u1ea1i trung t\u00e2m Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap h\u1ecd \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh v\u1ec1 c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 v\u00e0 t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn. Theo Clara Deser, nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc cao c\u1ea5p t\u1ea1i Trung t\u00e2m Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Kh\u00ed quy\u1ec3n Qu\u1ed1c gia M\u1ef9, El Nino trong v\u00e0i th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean.<\/p>\n

N\u0103m 2021, \u1ee6y ban Li\u00ean ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u1ec1 Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i Kh\u00ed h\u1eadu, c\u01a1 quan khoa h\u1ecdc kh\u00ed h\u1eadu h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, cho bi\u1ebft ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu do con ng\u01b0\u1eddi g\u00e2y ra \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a El Nino v\u00e0 La Nina. \u0110\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 6, T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c Kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng cho th\u1ea5y bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu l\u00e0m t\u0103ng t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t ho\u1eb7c c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n El Nino.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t so v\u1edbi th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 ti\u1ec1n c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, El Nino th\u1eddi nay g\u00e2y ra nhi\u1ec1u t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan h\u01a1n tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, v\u1edbi kh\u00ed quy\u1ec3n \u1ea9m h\u01a1n, t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng l\u0169 l\u1ee5t, nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00f3ng h\u01a1n v\u00e0 gia t\u0103ng h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n. T\u1ed5ng th\u01b0 k\u00fd Li\u00ean H\u1ee3p Qu\u1ed1c Ant\u00f3nio Guterres ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u: “\u0110i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n El Nino s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed5 th\u00eam d\u1ea7u v\u00e0o l\u1eeda trong m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111ang n\u00f3ng l\u00ean. C\u00e1c t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ebd c\u00e0ng n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 h\u01a1n”.<\/p>\n

An Khang <\/strong>t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p<\/em><\/p>\n<\/article>\n

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https:\/\/vnexpress.net\/bien-doi-khi-hau-co-khuech-dai-el-nino-5089862.html<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu c\u00f3 khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i El Nino? Trong khi \u0111\u1ee3t El Nino m\u1edbi c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang tranh lu\u1eadn li\u1ec7u bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu c\u00f3 g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n l\u00e0m t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y hay kh\u00f4ng. H\u00f4m 11\/6, C\u1ee5c<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1460,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cong-nghe"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1459"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1459\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1460"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}