{"id":18475,"date":"2026-09-21T13:17:21","date_gmt":"2026-09-21T06:17:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/?p=18475"},"modified":"2026-09-21T13:17:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T06:17:21","slug":"vi-sao-yen-nhat-van-mat-gia-sau-dot-can-thiep-lich-su","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/?p=18475","title":{"rendered":"V\u00ec sao yen Nh\u1eadt v\u1eabn m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 sau \u0111\u1ee3t can thi\u1ec7p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\nV\u00ec sao yen Nh\u1eadt v\u1eabn m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 sau \u0111\u1ee3t can thi\u1ec7p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed? <\/h1>\n

B\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ee3t can thi\u1ec7p t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, \u0111\u1ed3ng yen ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 do d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n v\u1eabn ch\u1ea3y kh\u1ecfi Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n

Chi\u1ec1u 12\/8, m\u1ed7i USD \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 159 JPY. \u0110\u1ed3ng yen \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n n\u1eeda m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng sau \u0111\u1ee3t ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p can thi\u1ec7p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n c\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e2y g\u1ea7n hai tu\u1ea7n. Khi \u0111\u00f3, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ea1t 155 JPY \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1ed9t USD, sau khi th\u1ee7ng m\u1ed1c 163 JPY.<\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng t\u1eebng \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 n\u1ed9i t\u1ec7 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n xu\u1ed1ng th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 l\u1ea1i \u0111ang quay l\u1ea1i. “S\u1ef1 can thi\u1ec7p khi\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lo s\u1ee3, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ng\u0103n quy lu\u1eadt t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh r\u1eb1ng d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n s\u1ebd ch\u1ea3y v\u1ec1 n\u01a1i c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cao nh\u1ea5t. Ch\u1eebng n\u00e0o l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u1eabn th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i, giao d\u1ecbch ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u1eabn s\u1ebd tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i”, Jesper Koll – Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c t\u1ea1i Monex Group nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

V\u00e0i th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, khi c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n l\u1ea1i duy tr\u00ec c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng, khi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed3ng yen tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng cho ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng carry trade (giao d\u1ecbch ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7). Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 vay \u0111\u1ed3ng yen gi\u00e1 r\u1ebb, chuy\u1ec3n sang c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n c\u00f3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 h\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch ho\u1eb7c \u0111em \u0111i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n

T\u1eeb n\u0103m 2024, n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u00e2m. Tuy nhi\u00ean, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y hi\u1ec7n ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 1% sau nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c 3,5-3,75% c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n

T\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u00e0ng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c khi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao. Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u cao \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i v\u1edbi Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, do ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng.<\/p>\n

Jesper Koll cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ee3t can thi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e3 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong vi\u1ec7c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c v\u00e0 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng r\u1ee7i ro v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c yen gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

C\u00f9ng quan \u0111i\u1ec3m, Masahiko Loo – chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gia t\u1ea1i State Street Global Advisors nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng can thi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e3 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp l\u1ea1i t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, theo Loo, bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 x\u00f3a b\u1ecf l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111ang h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 USD.<\/p>\n

\u00d4ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 10 n\u0103m hi\u1ec7n \u1edf m\u1ee9c 4,686%, g\u1ea7n g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n. Vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u1eafm gi\u1eef n\u1ee3 M\u1ef9. “H\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m ch\u1eadm ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1, nh\u01b0ng ch\u01b0a thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 g\u1ed1c r\u1ec5 l\u00e0 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t”, Loo n\u00f3i.<\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 ch\u00fa \u00fd \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed5 d\u1ed3n v\u00e0o Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n (BOJ). C\u01a1 quan n\u00e0y s\u1ebd c\u00f3 cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ti\u1ebfp theo v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 9.<\/p>\n

Theo Koll, \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n \u0111\u1ee3t can thi\u1ec7p, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 do d\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a BOJ trong vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0m d\u1ea5y l\u00ean ng\u1edd v\u1ef1c li\u1ec7u lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ho\u1eb7c kh\u1ed1i n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n c\u00f3 \u0111ang k\u00ecm h\u00e3m gi\u1edbi ch\u1ee9c hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng ho\u1eb7c m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 ch\u01b0a \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1eabn c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ec1n ra n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i. John Wood – Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 khu v\u1ef1c ch\u00e2u \u00c1 t\u1ea1i Lombard Odier, cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ee3t can thi\u1ec7p m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 “ph\u00e1t huy t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng trong th\u1eddi gian h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf”. Theo \u00f4ng, BOJ c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea7n t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00eam \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 2 l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1eb7n \u0111\u00e0 suy y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng yen.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u1eabn c\u00f2n nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n kh\u00e1c. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Cr\u00e9dit Agricole CIB cho r\u1eb1ng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 s\u00e2u xa h\u01a1n l\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng “b\u1ea5t c\u00e2n x\u1ee9ng v\u1ec1 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0” gi\u1eefa hai n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. L\u00e0n s\u00f3ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn v\u00e0o AI v\u00e0 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n kh\u00e1c t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 \u0111ang thu h\u00fat d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng – t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Sanae Takaichi v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tri\u1ec3n khai \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7.<\/p>\n

“\u0110i\u1ec1u c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u1eafc ph\u1ee5c t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng yen y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, thay v\u00ec t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t”, ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng n\u00e0y nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh. \u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed3ng yen ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng, c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n ph\u1ea3i h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn h\u01a1n, nh\u1eb1m khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch ti\u1ec1n ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m \u1edf l\u1ea1i trong n\u01b0\u1edbc thay v\u00ec ch\u1ea3y ra n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i.<\/p>\n

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Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 USD\/JPY trong m\u1ed9t n\u0103m qua. \u0110\u1ed3 th\u1ecb: Reuters<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p can thi\u1ec7p ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 r\u00e0o ch\u1eafn ng\u0103n \u0111\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng yen t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c, thay v\u00ec \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

Loo cho r\u1eb1ng 160 JPY \u0111\u1ed5i 1 USD l\u00e0 “ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n”. N\u1ebfu t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 nhanh ch\u00f3ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ed1c n\u00e0y, gi\u1edbi ch\u1ee9c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i can thi\u1ec7p. “T\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u00f3 th\u00eam m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t can thi\u1ec7p, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t n\u1ebfu t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng nhanh v\u00e0 m\u1ea5t ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t”, Loo n\u00f3i. \u00d4ng cho r\u1eb1ng can thi\u1ec7p ch\u1ec9 gi\u00fap k\u00e9o d\u00e0i th\u1eddi gian, v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n vi\u1ec7c n\u1eb7ng h\u01a1n c\u1ea3 s\u1ebd ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a BOJ.<\/p>\n

Washington hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf c\u1ea5p thanh kho\u1ea3n USD v\u1edbi t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m l\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9. Vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u b\u00e1n s\u1ed1 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 m\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n \u0111ang n\u1eafm gi\u1eef \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 v\u1ed1n cho ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng can thi\u1ec7p. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed3ng yen m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 tr\u1edf n\u00ean t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m giao d\u1ecbch carry trade bi\u1ebfn m\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

“D\u1ecda th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00ec d\u1ec5, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1edbi ch\u1ee9c c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng l\u00f2ng tin”, Koll k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn.<\/p>\n

H\u00e0 Thu<\/strong>(theo CNBC)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/article>\n

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https:\/\/vnexpress.net\/vi-sao-yen-nhat-van-mat-gia-sau-dot-can-thiep-lich-su-5108365.html<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V\u00ec sao yen Nh\u1eadt v\u1eabn m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 sau \u0111\u1ee3t can thi\u1ec7p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed? B\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ee3t can thi\u1ec7p t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, \u0111\u1ed3ng yen ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 do d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n v\u1eabn ch\u1ea3y kh\u1ecfi Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9. Chi\u1ec1u 12\/8, m\u1ed7i USD \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 159 JPY. \u0110\u1ed3ng yen<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18476,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-thi-truong"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18475","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18475"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18475\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18476"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18475"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18475"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/useful.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18475"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}